Published On: Tue, Jan 8th, 2019

Pound US dollar exchange rate: Optimistic global risk sentiment weighs on USD

Compared to October by 2.2 percent, while year-on-year the figure rose by 1.3 percent compared to November 2017. 

Yesterday saw the pound US dollar exchange rate gain steadily despite the poor UK new car sales figures, which revealed an ongoing contraction from -3 percent to -5.5 percent in December.

Sterling was able to take advantage of the weakness in the dollar, as over the course of the yesterday’s session decreased global risk sentiment caused investors to pull out of the safe-haven USD. 

With US-China talks beginning in Beijing, this is the first face-to-face talks between the two countries since the temporary 90-day trade truce was agreed upon.

China’s vice premier Liu He, sparked optimism stating: “These talks will have a positive outcome because both sides are trying to deal with the issue in an active and practical manner.”

Any breakthrough in the trade talks is likely to lead to a continued improvement in global risk sentiment, meaning the US dollar is likely to fall further.

Adding to the dollar’s woes, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the US dropped by more than expected, falling from 60.7 to 57.6, further weakening the US currency. 

In the UK, Parliament returns from the holiday recess today, with MPs refocusing on Brexit as the negotiations surrounding Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement continue.

The date of the “meaningful vote” is due on January 15, with it being likely that the closer we get to then, the more volatile the pound dollar exchange rate is likely to be, as the US dollar is likely to take advantage of any weakness in Sterling. 

November’s US consumer credit data is due to be released this evening, with the forecast fall to $18bn perhaps suggesting that Americans are losing their appetite for spending beyond their means, potentially allowing a rise in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

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