Published On: Sun, Oct 6th, 2019

Polling guru John Curtice reveals 'crucial' reasons Tories can win next general election


Speaking on the BBC One Andrew Marr Show, the polling guru claimed the Conservative Party under the leadership of has gained considerable trust among voters in the country. Mr Curtice also explained how Remain voters, now split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, will also help the Prime Minister win his party a clear majority at the next general election. 

He said: “This is what is crucial. In a sense, the opportunity for Boris Johnson to be able to win a general election lies on two foundations.

“The first is that the Conservative Party has been relatively successful doing the course of the summer in squeezing the Brexit Party vote.

“Over a half of those who voted Leave in 2016 now say they’d vote Conservatives whereas only around a quarter said they’d vote for the Brexit Party.

“And if those numbers get pushed a bit further then the Conservative are in clear territory.

READ MORE: EU must compromise or will count the cost – EXPRESS COMMENT

brexit news uk general election polls boris johnson conservative party john curtice

Brexit news: John Curtice claims Conservative will have ‘clear territory’ at next general election (Image: BBC•GETTY)

brexit news uk general election polls boris johnson conservative party john curtice

Brexit news: John Curtice claims Brexit vote is now united behind Tories (Image: BBC)

The Leave vote has to a fair degree united behind the Tories

John Curtice

“Foundation number two is the relative success of the Liberal Democrats in dividing up the Remain vote.

“They are now competing quite heavily with Labour for the Remain vote – although today’s polls suggest they have fallen back a bit.

“But it’s the fact that the Leave vote has to a fair degree united behind the Tories and the Remain vote has divided between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats, that means the Conservatives can look forward to the prospect of an election.”

It comes as talks of a Brexit Party-Conservatives cooperation intensified when chair of the European Research Group (ERG) Steve Baker claimed the Government might be preparing to make Nigel Farage the UK European Commissioner if Boris Johnson is forced to ask for a Brexit delay.

The former minister told Chopper’s Brexit Podcast: “I unashamedly back Nigel Farage to be our next EU commissioner in the unfortunate event that it transpires.

“This approach is inspired by the film Armageddon.

“There is that moment when they are trying to save the world and so what they do is they land on the asteroid and they put a nuclear weapon into the heart of the asteroid.”

He concluded: “Nigel Farage is that nuclear weapon.”

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Brexit news: Nigel Farage may be appointed UK European Commissioner if Boris is forced to extend Article 50 (Image: GETTY)

The intention of the move would be to disrupt the European Union if a new deal cannot be reached or no deal is blocked.

Another strategy being mooted is to veto the EU’s proposed budget for 2021-2027.

Aides of Boris Johnson have already been considering vetoing an EU vote to formally reduce the number of commissioners in preparation of Brexit, with Downing Street believing the commission will not be “legally constituted” if such a move is vetoed.

Despite Mr Johnson’s new proposals for a revised deal being welcomed generally well by EU leaders as well as by former Prime Minister David Cameron and former Northern Ireland First Minister Lord Trimble, Brussels wants further compromise from the UK, it is understood.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay insisted: “We are not backing down.”



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